The Nebulous Kingdom

All the things we probably don't know (and think we do)

12/25/2011

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Let's start with some of the things we thought we knew (and didn't):

Field:  Development Psychology
Long-held idea:  Babies six months or younger have no sense of “object permanence,” the belief that an object still exists even when it is out of sight
Recent discovery:   Infants may not remember what they saw, but they remember that they saw something (1991, 2011)
Reference:  http://www.futurity.org/science-technology/babies-remember-inklings-not-objects/

Field:  Medicine
Long-held idea:  Stress and lifestyle cause ulcers
Recent discovery:  H. pylori bacterium causes more than 90% of duodenal (intestinal) ulcers and up to 80% of gastric (stomach) ulcers, and can be cured through a course of antibiotics (1982)
Reference:  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4304290.stm

Field:  Astronomy
Long-held idea:  There are 9 planets in our solar system
Recent discovery:  Pluto is not a planet after all, bringing the count to 8 (2006)
Reference:  http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2098150,00.html 


Field:  Physics
Long-held idea:  Time travel is not possible
Recent discovery:  Particles were clocked at going faster than the speed of light, making time travel possible (2011)
Reference:  http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/19/science/space/neutrino-finding-is-confirmed-in-second-experiment-opera-scientists-say.html

Field:  Technology
Long-held idea:  The limit on battery technology has nearly been reached
Recent discovery:  We may soon be able to store 8 times more energy than conventional designs thanks to a new conducting material (2011)
Reference:  http://futureoftech.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/23/7923474-battery-tech-improving-as-demand-soars   

Field:  Economics
Long-held idea:  Laissez-faire capitalism is the system that optimizes for the greatest good for all
Recent discoveries:  There may be ways to improve upon laissez-faire capitalism, e.g. choice architecture a la Nudge, focused regulation that solves for externalities and other market failures, the Nordic model, institutional / infrastructure investment, etc. (approx. 1980-present)
References:  Many.

Field:  Education 
Long-held idea:  Classroom size is one of the main drivers of academic outcomes
Recent discovery:  Teacher quality is more important than classroom size (i.e. classroom size only matters because the great-teacher-per-student ratio matters) (2006-2011)
Reference:  http://www.econ.ucsb.edu/~jon/Econ230C/HanushekRivkin.pdf 

Field:  History 
Long-held idea:  King Tut was murdered
Recent discovery:  King Tut died from complications from a broken foot and malaria (2010)
Reference:  http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0217/King-Tut-The-science-behind-the-discovery 

Field:  Energy
Long-held idea:  Solar is fundamentally too inefficient to ever achieve grid parity wide-scale
Recent discovery:   Costs are plummeting and breakthroughs in solar are happening at a breakneck pace
Reference:  http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/03/16/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells/ ; http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/12/111215141617.htm 


Now consider, if we were wrong about all these things for years if not decades, what we continue to be wrong about but just don't know yet.
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    I'm interested in uncertainty, time, trust, consistency, strategy, economics, empathy, philosophy, education, technology, story-telling, and fractals.
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