An Android Retrospective

With all the talk of Android’s wild success….

A pause for some data:    

• 60%  of developers
• 70,000 apps
• 1 billion+ downloads
• 33% share in North America
• +4% in operating system share in May 2010, vs. -1% for Apple
• Android-enabled shipments exceeding iPhone (analyst estimates)

… I thought I’d dig up from the files an analysis I did of Google’s early actions around the Android, dated from December 2007, one month after launch.  At the time, despite widespread dubiousness, we assessed a relatively high probability of their eventual success.  In hindsight, the analysis is a bit simplistic but with much being spoken about the phenomenal execution of the Android team, it's worthwhile to review how they started in light of their later success:

android_retrospective.pdf
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The analytical framework was implicitly based on the research I was doing at the time with the Center for the Edge with John Hagel, John Seely Brown and Lang Davison on Shaping Strategies, i.e. how to mobilize players around a shaping platform, which ended up as a Harvard Business Review article:
http://www.johnseelybrown.com/shapingstrategy.pdf 
 
Looking back, the “current challenges” back in December 2007 are revealing  (italics added later):

• Will Apple open the iPhone platform in response to the openness of the Android? [Yes]
• Can a consortium of 34 companies really execute on the promise of open-source mobile applications and hardware? [Yes - but still unclear whether a non-fragmentation agreement is sufficient]
• Does announcing the initiative this early in the development process promote rumors of vaporware?  [It did, with rumors fanned by competitors, but they overcame them by executing]
• Should Google combat the disappointment in “just a software package” (as opposed to a Gphone as rumored) by articulating its vision more strongly?  [It seems like it didn't matter]     
• Does Verizon’s "open" announcement increase risk to potential Android adopters?  Are aspiring shapers vulnerable to an announcement of a competing platform until lock-in takes place?  [Google was more credible and did a better job of executing - unclear whether there is a broader lesson here]